We present the results of the fourth Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute, a survey on foreign and defence policy issues conducted three times a year. The technical details of the survey are as follows:
? Universe: Spanish nationals aged 18 and above.
? Size of sample: 1,204n (individuals).
? Interviews: by telephone (calls made to the interviewees? homes).
? Sample selection: in direct proportion of the distribution by age and sex of the Spanish population.
? Supervision rate:? 12% of interviews and 100% of interviewers.
? Sample error margin: ?2.9% (1,200n) for global figures, p = q = 0.5, and a reliability level of 95.5%.
? Dates of field work: Monday 20 October to Tuesday 4 November, 2003, conducted by Intergallup, S.A. (affiliate of Gallup Espa?a).
1. NEGATIVE VIEW OF THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION
Beginning with an evaluation of the current international situation, 20% of interviewees said that it was good, while 76% considered it bad. Only 4% either did not know or did not answer.
Factors such as the increase in Israeli-Palestinian
violence and that of Iraq seem to have contributed to the rise
in pessimism since February.
2. FIRM OPPOSITION TO THE WAR IN IRAQ, BUT SUPPORT FOR THE SPANISH TROOPS STATIONED THERE
No fewer than 85% of Spaniards believe that the war in Iraq was not worth the trouble. Along with France, this is the highest percentage of opponents in Europe, according to our sources:
|
UK |
France |
Germany |
Netherlands |
Italy |
Poland |
Portugal |
Spain |
Europe |
US | |
|
Yes |
42 |
13 |
15 |
38 |
26 |
30 |
24 |
9 |
25 |
55 |
|
No |
51 |
84 |
81 |
55 |
68 |
62 |
71 |
85 |
70 |
36 |
|
DK/DA |
7 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Source: Transatlantic Trends 2003 and Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute.
However, opinions are clearly divided on the presence of Spanish troops: 38% in favour, 37% against ?a difference of 1%, which is statistically insignificant.
Questioned further,
? 40% consider that the troops should be brought home;
? 44% accepted that they should stay, but only as part of a UN-led multinational force.
Most of those interviewed (53%) support UN Resolution 1511, which they consider a major step forward for the reconstruction of Iraq:
However, Spanish public opinion is once again divided on the success of the Iraq Donors? Conference: 34% regard it as successful (very successful or successful) while 40% consider it unsuccessful (unsuccessful or failure):
3. SPANIARDS MARKEDLY PACIFIST, BUT NOT ISOLATIONIST
In comparison not only with the United States but also with European countries as a group, Spain is the most pacifist country. To test this, we reproduced in Spain the survey conducted by Transatlantic Trends which distinguishes four basic attitudes to foreign policy (dove, hawk, pragmatist and isolationist) in response to two key questions: whether economic power is more important than military power, and whether in certain circumstances war is necessary to enforce the law. The result in Spain was as follows:
? The majority of Spaniards, two out of three (66%) are ?doves?, ie, they consider that economic power is more important than military power and reject recourse to military action under any circumstances. This is far and away the highest percentage seen across the whole of Europe (the European average is 42%) and more than six times higher than the United States (10%).
? ?Pragmatists?, ie, those who consider that economic power is more important than military power but accept that war is sometimes necessary, are correspondingly much fewer in Spain than elsewhere: 22% in Spain versus 43% in Europe or 65% in the US.
? ?Isolationists?, those who think that war is unnecessary but who attach greater importance to military than to economic power, account for 11% of Spaniards, slightly higher than the European average (8%).
? Lastly, only 2% of Spaniards are ?hawks?, people who consider that military power remains essential and that war is justified. This is a third of the proportion of European hawks (7%) and a tiny fraction of US hawks (22%).
|
UK |
France |
Germany |
Netherlands |
Italy |
Poland |
Portugal |
Spain |
Europe |
US | |
|
Doves |
19 |
49 |
52 |
32 |
45 |
41 |
43 |
65 |
42 |
10 |
|
Pragmatists |
63 |
34 |
35 |
50 |
40 |
47 |
41 |
22 |
43 |
65 |
|
Isolationists |
5 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
8 |
3 |
|
Hawks |
14 |
6 |
4 |
10 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
2 |
7 |
22 |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Source: Transatlantic Trends 2003 and the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute.
Despite the above findings, Spaniards? pacifism does not prevent a majority of them (72%) from holding that it is good for the future of Spain for it to play an active role in international politics. Only 20% believe that it is better for the future of the country to remain inactive, a percentage that is higher than that of Europe as a whole and, surprisingly, much closer to that of the United Kingdom (17%):
|
UK |
France |
Germany |
Netherlands |
Italy |
Poland |
Portugal |
Spain |
Europe |
US | |
|
Active |
73 |
88 |
82 |
78 |
87 |
73 |
80 |
72 |
81 |
77 |
|
Inactive |
17 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
9 |
14 |
11 |
20 |
13 |
15 |
|
DK/DA |
10 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
13 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Source: Transatlantic Trends 2003 and the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute.
Further confirmation of this ?interventionist? attitude is the fact that a large majority (75% vs 22%, three to one) maintains that Spain is entitled to take its own decisions on foreign policy even though such decisions do not coincide with those adopted by other European countries such as France or Germany:
Without doubt most Spaniards consider that Europe is more important for Spanish foreign policy than the United States (56% vs just 6%) but, surprisingly, the proportion of people who think this way is the lowest in Europe, again only comparable to the United Kingdom (53% of whose inhabitants make Europe the priority). That noted, the motives for this apparent Anglo-Spanish tepidness on Europe are different in each case. For Britons it derives, understandably, from their closer relation with the United States (36%), a minority factor in Spain (6%). But what differentiates Spain from its continental European peers is that 34% of its inhabitants think that both entities, Europe and the United States, carry equal importance. The percentage figure for this ?even-handed approach? is the highest in Europe, doubling that of Poland (16%) and tripling that of the other continental European countries (which move in a range of between 6% and 8%).
|
UK |
France |
Germany |
Netherlands |
Italy |
Poland |
Portugal |
Spain |
Europe | |
|
EU |
53 |
95 |
81 |
84 |
80 |
68 |
85 |
56 |
77 |
|
US |
36 |
3 |
9 |
8 |
13 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
13 |
|
Both |
7 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
16 |
6 |
34 |
7 |
|
DA/DK |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Source: Transatlantic Trends 2003 and the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute.
This is another highly significant result of this Barometer reading. It shows that for Spaniards Europe is the priority, but a Europe which does not break with the United States.
A similar conclusion is reached if we analyse what Spaniards think about ?superpowers?. A massive majority (no less than 73%) rejects the idea of a superpower, be it European or American. This is the highest percentage in Europe, six times higher than the European average.
|
UK |
France |
Germany |
Netherlands |
Italy |
Poland |
Portugal |
Spain |
Europe |
US | |
|
US only |
22 |
5 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
10 |
42 |
|
EU also |
52 |
89 |
70 |
65 |
80 |
63 |
80 |
24 |
71 |
37 |
|
None |
17 |
4 |
16 |
22 |
13 |
17 |
5 |
73 |
14 |
5 |
|
DK/DA |
9 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Source: Transatlantic Trends 2003 and the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute.
And while, logically, only a handful (a statistically insignificant 1%) of Spaniards approve of the idea of the US being the sole superpower, only 24% support the alternative, a single European superpower. This is, again, the lowest percentage in Europe in favour of an alternative, European, superpower. It contrasts with the 80% plus (three times higher) found in Portugal, Italy and France, and the 50% plus (more than double) in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Poland. Without doubt Spain is, of the countries studied, the least in favour of Europe becoming an alternative superpower.
4. YES TO THE US, BUT NO TO BULLYING OR UNILATERALISM
Surprisingly, the United States is currently regarded as Spain?s closest friend. It obtains 37% of Spaniards? votes, compared with 10% for France, 8% for the United Kingdom and a meagre 7% for Germany. These figures run so far counter to our expectations (although not so much with some of the other results analysed) that we shall have to await confirmation before giving them as valid. They may have been swayed by misinterpretations by the interviewees of the question being asked.
Rejection of US foreign policy unilateralism, on the other hand, leaves no room for doubt. 57% of Spaniards regard it as a very dangerous development for Spanish interests, more so, indeed, than Islamic fundamentalism or mass immigration (though noticeably less so than terrorism).
Possible threats to vital Spanish interests|
Figures in percentages |
Extremely serious |
Serious |
Not at all serious |
DK/DA |
|
Islamic fundamentalism |
51 |
29 |
10 |
10 |
|
International terrorism |
72 |
23 |
4 |
1 |
|
The large number of immigrants and refugees reaching Spain |
40 |
38 |
21 |
1 |
|
The military conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours |
57 |
33 |
5 |
3 |
|
Iranian development of weapons of mass destruction |
46 |
29 |
19 |
5 |
|
US unilateralism |
57 |
29 |
10 |
4 |
Understandably, to the question as to the main cause of the poor image of the United States, the majority of interviewees (65%) point first and foremost to the overbearing attitude of the US in imposing its will on other countries, while only a few (10%) indicate US military intervention in other countries, and no one lays the blame on the other possibilities offered ?the influence of American culture or a hypothetical disdain of US citizens towards Spaniards.
5. UNDOUBTED EUROPEANISM, BUT NOT AS AN ALTERNATIVE POWER
As expected, support for the European Constitution is overwhelming (80%) and the majority (60%) would vote for it tomorrow if a referendum were held:
But 53% reject any mention of Christianity in the text, as opposed to 40% who agree that European culture is Christian and so it should be stated in any covering Constitution of the countries of the European Union:
It is also worth noting that, as pointed out earlier, the immense majority (73%) disapproves of French pretensions of turning Europe into a superpower. And of the minority (24%) that likes the idea, most (67%) feel that this hypothetical European superpower should cooperate rather than compete with the United States (67% vs 13%). If we combine the two questions, the conclusion is that only 3% of Spaniards (13% of 24%) favours a European superpower competing with the United States. All the evidence points to a strong tendency (probably a majority) in favour of combining Europeanism on one hand and ?Atlanticism? on the other and opposed to having to choose between either.
6. REJECTION OF SHARON?S POLICIES IN ISRAEL AND QUALIFIED SUPPORT FOR THE PALESTINIANS
It is interesting to observe that Spaniards do seem to have clear ideas on the Palestinian conflict, ideas that stretch their pacifism to the limit (intervention for humanitarian reasons). Thus:
? the immense majority consider that Israel should withdraw from the occupied territories (79%);
? to this end they are prepared to countenance sanctions against Israel (65%);
? at the same time pressure should be brought to bear on the Arab countries to end their support for Palestinian terrorism (77%);
? and they firmly support the idea of a peace-keeping force to separate Palestinians and Israelis (78%);
? finally, however, they reject the idea of cutting aid to the Palestinians in an effort to prevent them using suicide bombers against the Israelis (64%).
7. SUPPORT FOR SPANISH-BASED MULTINATIONALS
Spaniards are reasonably well aware of which Spanish companies have invested in Latin America:
They are equally knowledgeable of the recipients of
this investment:
Furthermore, they value the results of this development positively and are convinced that these investments are of benefit to the countries of Latin America, noticeably more so than their Latin American counterparts:
|
Latin Americans |
Spaniards | |
|
Highly beneficial |
8 |
16 |
|
Beneficial |
22 |
39 |
|
Not particularly beneficial |
25 |
20 |
|
Not at all beneficial |
12 |
4 |
|
No such investment |
7 |
2 |
|
DA/DN |
26 |
18 |
|
Total |
100% |
100% |
|
Positive ? negative = |
-7 |
+27 |
Source: Latinobar?metro 2003 and BRIE-4