THIRTIETH EDITION OF THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE (June 2012)
Press Summary
Technical Data
Universe:general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size:N = 1,000 interviewees.
Interview methodology used:telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size:stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error:±3.3 for global data (900n); ±4.7 for subsamples (450n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period:from 1 to 15 June 2012.
Field work:GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).
THE EU BAILS OUT THE SPANISH BANKING SECTOR
- Before the EU bailed out the Spanish banking sector, 52% of Spaniards did not think Spain would need to be bailed out, although almost 40% thought it would.
Do you think Spain will have to be bailed out?
| Yes | No | DK/NA |
| 36.1 | 52.4 | 11.5 |
- Following the announcement that funds would be made available, 42% thought the terms better than those for the Greek, Portuguese and Irish bail-outs. However, one of every three Spaniards thinks they are the same as for the other countries.
The EU has finally had to bail out Spain’s banks. What’s your opinion?
| Better than the other bail-outs | The same | Worse than the other bail-outs | DK/NA |
| 42.3 | 29.6 | 12.7 | 15.5 |
- AS regards the consequences for other issues, 60% think it’s good for Spain’s banking sector and 53% that it’s good for the Euro.
Is the bail-out positive or negative for…?
| Very positive | Positive | Neither positive nor negative | Negative | Very negative | DK/NA | |
| The Spanish banking sector | 9.0 | 48.8 | 8.0 | 23.2 | 5.2 | 5.9 |
| Euro and EU stability | 3.5 | 50.5 | 12.1 | 20.4 | 2.4 | 11.1 |
| Spain’s economy and employment | 0.7 | 33.6 | 14.9 | 30.1 | 8.7 | 12.1 |
- Spaniards are evenly divided about whether the effects of the bail-out are good or bad for the Spanish economy and employment.
- But only 10% think it will be a turning point in the resolution of the crisis. The vast majority (77%) consider it one more step in a long process towards economic recovery.
Is the European bail-out of Spain’s banks the end of the crisis or just one step in a long process?
| The end of Spain’s crisis | One step in a long process | DK/NA |
| 9.3 | 76.8 | 13.8 |
- Spaniards are highly critical of how institutions have managed the crisis, although less so as regards international ones than national ones such as the government and the Bank of Spain.
Since the nationalisation of Bankia to the EU’s bail-out of the Spanish banks, how would you describe the role played by the following actors and institutions?
| Very positive | Positive | Neither positive nor negative | Negative | Very negative | DK/NA | |
| Spanish government | – | 23.6 | 5.6 | 36.7 | 20.8 | 13.3 |
| EU | 0.3 | 27.5 | 13.6 | 34.2 | 8.3 | 16.1 |
| IMF | 0.3 | 26.7 | 12.8 | 33.9 | 7.5 | 18.9 |
| ECB | 0.3 | 26.1 | 11.9 | 35.3% | 7.8 | 18.6 |
| Bank of Spain | – | 14.7 | 13.9 | 34.4 | 20.3 | 16.7 |
- As regards Spanish political figures, the worst scores are those of Rato and Fernández Ordóñez, and the best those of the King and García-Margallo.
Please give a score from 0 to 10, with 0 being very bad and 10 very good, to each of the following political figures.
| Score | NA | NS | |
| Luis de Guindos | 4.3 | 4.2 | 9.2 |
| José Manuel García-Margallo | 4.4 | 7.5 | 13.1 |
| Cristóbal Montoro | 4.2 | 3.1 | 10.3 |
| Pedro Morenés | 4.4 | 11.1 | 15.8 |
| Rodrigo Rato | 2.4 | 1.9 | 7.2 |
| Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez | 2.6 | 3.6 | 8.1 |
| King Juan Carlos I | 5.4 | 0.6 | 7.2 |
SPAIN’S IMAGE ABROAD
- Fifty five percent of Spaniards believe the bail-out is bad for Spain’s image abroad.
Following the ERU’s bail-out of the Spanish banking sector, what image do you think Spain has abroad?
| Much better | Better | The same | Worse | Much worse | DK/NA |
| 1.4 | 11.4 | 26.7 | 35.8 | 15.3 | 9.4 |
- In this respect, this is bad news, since it is precisely in the economy that Spain has its weakest point. The core of 3 which Spaniards give their economy contrasts with the 5 they give themselves as a society.
From 0 to 10, what image do you think Spain has abroad in the following aspects?
| Score | NA | |
| Economy | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Culture | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| Politics | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| Society | 5.4 | 1.5 |
| Spain in general | 5.1 | 4.1% |
- The perception that Spaniards have of their country’s image abroad is worse than the image foreigners actually have of Spain. While Spaniards give their country a score of 5, and believe that foreigners give Spain the same score, the actual average the UK, Germany, the US and Brazil give Spain is 7.2. Therefore, Spain’s domestic image is worse than it is abroad given the prevailing pessimism in Spanish society.
| Spain’s score | |
| UK | 7.2 |
| Germany | 6.5 |
| US | 6.9 |
| Brazil | 8.1 |
| AVERAGE ABROAD | 7.2 |
| Spanish average | 5.1 |
- Almost 80% believe public expenditure on improving Spain’s image abroad should be maintained or increased.
- In this regard, 60% of Spaniards consider the Spain brand initiative useful to improve Spain’s image abroad.
What’s your opinion of the government’s Spain Brand initiative to improve the country’s image abroad?
| Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | DK/NA |
| 12.2 | 46.8 | 24.6 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 9.3 |
- Nevertheless, most Spaniards (74%) also think that the priority is to solve the country’s real economic problems, although one in four think it is also important to improve its image.
What is Spain’s priority?
| Solve its economic problems | Improve its image abroad | Both | Neither | DK/NA |
| 74.2 | 2.4 | 22.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
THE IMPORTANCE OF CULTURE
- Compared with the discredit of the economy, Spanish culture and art are valued by Spaniards, with a score of 5.5.
- Similarly, the promotion of Spanish culture abroad is clearly supported by Spanish public opinion, with most Spaniards believing that expenditure on this item should be maintained or increased (65%).
Should expenditure by public institutions and foundations on the following items be increased, maintained or reduced?
| Increase | Maintain | Reduce | Indifferent | DK/NA | |
| Subsidies for artists | 11.4 | 49.9 | 36.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Infrastructure | 11.1 | 48.1 | 38.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Educating the public | 52.6 | 36.5 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Further training of artists | 10.5 | 44.1 | 41.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Promoting Spanish culture abroad | 13.8 | 51.2 | 32.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
THE EURO CRISIS
- Most Spaniards think that no progress has been made in combating the Euro-zone crisis and that the situation remains stagnant.
- What’s your opinion of the following measures to combat the debt crisis?
| Very positive | Positive | Neither positive nor negative | Negative | Very negative | DK/NA | |
| Recapitalisation of banks | 1.6 | 36.3 | 11.4 | 36.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Reform of the ECB | 1.3 | 47.7 | 15.6 | 22.0 | 2.4 | 10.9 |
| Reform of the EU in general | 2.9 | 53.0 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 1.3 | 10.0 |
| Bail-out and intervention in trouble-ridden countries | 1.1 | 55.2 | 14.7 | 19.4 | 2.4 | 7.1 |
| Issue of Euro-bonds | 0.4 | 46.3 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 0.4 | 20.3 |
- Perhaps because of this the image of Europe’s leaders is not very good, as in most cases they are below the pass mark.
THE IMAGE OF FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER AND MORALES DETERIORATES, WITH FEARS OF A SPILL-OVER EFFECT
- Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is the international leader least appreciated by Spaniards, at 2.9, followed by Evo Morales, at 3.1.
Please give the following international leaders a score from 0 to 10.
| Score | NA | NS | |
| David Cameron | 5.2 | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| François Hollande | 5.5 | 7.8 | 19.6 |
| Barack Obama | 6.3 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Christine Lagarde | 4.6 | 11.5 | 9.3 |
| Mario Monti | 4.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 |
| Angela Merkel | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| José Manuel Durão Barroso | 5.1 | 11.8 | 14.8 |
| Herman Van Rompuy | 4.6 | 21.4 | 15.5 |
| Vladimir Putin | 3.4 | 8.9 | 14.0 |
| Cristina Fernández de Kichner | 2.9 | 5.1 | 8.6 |
| Evo Morales | 3.1 | 6.2 | 10.4 |
- Fifty five percent approve the measures taken against Argentina following the nationalisation of Repsol-YPF.
What’s your opinion of the measures taken by Spain against Argentina in response to the Repsol-YPF case?
| Sufficient | Neither sufficient nor insufficient | Insufficient | DK/NA | |
| Take Argentina to an international court | 58.5 | 12.6 | 18.8 | 10.0 |
| Restrict Argentine imports | 54.1 | 14.4 | 20.6 | 10.9 |
- Opinions are divided as to the similarity between the nationalisation between the Spanish oil company in Argentina and of Red Eléctrica Española in Bolivia, although a majority believe they are different cases.
Are the nationalisations of Red Eléctrica Española in Bolivia and Repsol-YPF in Argentina the same?
| Identical | Different | DK/NA |
| 38.1 | 49.0 | 12.9 |
- In any case, most Spaniards (70%), are concerned that the trend could spread to the rest of the region.
- However, it should be highlighted that the image of these leaders is worse than that of their countries, with Argentina scoring 4.6 and Bolivia 4.5.
Following the nationalisation of Spanish companies in Argentina and Bolivia, how likely is it for the trend to spread to other countries?
| Very | Quite | Not very | Not at all | DK/NA |
| 15.7 | 55.0 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 9.5 |
THE HOLLANDE EFFECT
- Fernández de Kirchner’s score is half that of Obama, who gets the best score (6.3).
- In any case, the highlight of this wave of the BRIE is the surge of François Hollande, who is now the second-best in the list. At 5.5 he has pushed back Angela Merkel, whose score has dropped to 4.9. Hence, Spaniards want more Hollande and less Merkel.
- Most Spaniards (55%) think that Hollande’s presidency will be good for Europe and also for Spain. The same percentage think that Europe’s economic policy can change after Hollande’s election.
- Although the majority of Spaniards (56%) also think that Germany has a greater say in Europe than France. Hence, Spaniards are evenly split: while half think it important to have close relations with the new French President, the other half think the same should be done with Merkel.
Hollande’s election as French President is very good, good, bad or very bad for…?
| Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | DK/NA | |
| Europe | 3.5 | 49.4 | 27.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 15.1 |
| Spain | 3.3 | 48.8 | 27.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 15.1 |
FEAR OF ISLAMISM AND CONCERN FOR SYRIA
- The perception of Spaniards is that the process of transition to democracy in the Arab countries is not going well. Views are more pessimistic than a year ago.
In your opinion, how are the following transitions to democracy progressing?
| Very well | Well | Neither well nor badly | Badly | Very badly | DK/NA | |
| Tunisia | – | 6.7 | 18.8 | 47.2 | 6.0 | 21.3 |
| Egypt | 0.2 | 3.5 | 17.5 | 51.7 | 10.6 | 16.4 |
| Syria | – | 0.9 | 14.2 | 34.4 | 35.5 | 15.1 |
| Libya | – | 0.9 | 16.0 | 41.9 | 24.2 | 17.1 |
| Morocco | – | 3.1 | 30.2 | 41.5 | 7.5 | 17.7 |
- In most cases, the fear is that the outcome will be civil wars.
As a result of the changes so far, do you think there could be…?
| Very likely | Quite likely | Not very likely | Not at all likely | DK/NA | |
| Civil wars | 11.8 | 58.1 | 12.0 | 1.1 | 17.1 |
| Growth of Islamism | 9.8 | 50.1 | 21.5 | 1.8 | 16.9 |
| Conflicts with neighbouring countries | 3.5 | 46.8 | 29.5 | 2.7 | 17.5 |
| Improvements in living standards | 0.2 | 12.2 | 47.0 | 22.8 | 17.7 |
| Final transformation into democracies | – | 12.2 | 42.6 | 27.5 | 17.7 |
- A significant majority (55%) are negative about the advent to power of the Islamists.
Is the advent to power of the Islamist parties….?
| Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | DK/NA |
| – | 8.0 | 25.7 | 39.2 | 14.9 | 12.2 |
- There is a growing proportion of Spaniards who in favour of a multilateral international intervention to topple the Syrian regime.
Do you believe the international community should intervene in Syria to topple the current regime and help the country’s transition to democracy?
| Yes | No | DK/NA |
| 54.6 | 28.5 | 16.9 |
- However, although Spanish public opinion is not so in favour of sending Spanish troops to the front line, although support for the mission is gradually increasing.
Should Spain participate in a future international mission in Syria?
| Yes | No | DK/NA |
| 35.2 | 50.3 | 14.5 |
LACK OF INTEREST IN GIBRALTAR
- As regards the dispute over Gibraltar, almost 60% of Spaniards believe it to be an unimportant question in Spain’s foreign policy.
In Spain’s overall foreign policy, how important is the dispute with the UK over Gibraltar?
| Very | Quite | Not very | Not at all | DK/DA |
| 14.7 | 20.3 | 41.0 | 15.6 | 8.5 |
- In any case, after the latest events (harassment of Spanish fishing vessels, visit of members of the British Royal Family to Gibraltar, etc), Spanish public opinion is evenly divided: 40% favour greater diplomatic pressure while another 40% would prefer to wind down the tension.
After the recent incidents in Gibraltar, what should Spain’s attitude be?
| More diplomatic pressure | Reduce the tension | DK/NA |
| 41.2 | 44.1 | 14.7 |
