SIXTEENTH EDITION OF THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE (November 2007)
Press Summary
TECHNICAL DATA
- Universe: General Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
- Methodology used: Telephone (call to interviewees home).
- Sample structure: Stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the Spanish population with proportionate quotas according to the age and sex.
- Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (1,200n); ±4.1% for sub–samples (800n); p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
- Survey period: Between 26 November and 3 December 2007.
- Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).
ZAPATEROS FOREIGN POLICY HANDED A PASS GRADE
- Spaniards approve the foreign policy implemented by the government of prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Fifty–four percent rate it positively, compared with 39% who hold a negative view of it.
As might be expected, responses on this issue are linked to the ideology of those surveyed. Seventy–nine percent of socialist (PSOE) voters approve the policy, whereas only 24% of conservative (PP) voters do.
- Furthermore, 37% believe that it has been better than the foreign policy implemented by the Aznar government, compared with 26% who believe it has been worse.
Once again, the division is along ideological lines. Fifty–nine percent of PSOE voters believe that it has been better, although 21% of PP voters also agree.
OPTIMISM REGARDING MOROCCO
- For 47% of Spaniards, relations with Morocco are now better than they were under Aznar, whereas 30% think they have deteriorated.
- Forty–seven percent of Spaniards believe this will continue to be the case in 2008
- In this regard, an overwhelming majority (79%) of Spaniards think that the recent visit by the King and Queen of Spain to Ceuta and Melilla will not affect bilateral relations.
- This is probably also because for Spaniards this is not a priority issue. Of the problems regarding the relationship with Morocco, immigration (56%) is the one which Spaniards consider to be most important.
CHÁVEZ: THE LOWEST–SCORING LEADER
- Spaniards do not think that the incident at the Ibero–American Summit in Santiago de Chile between the King and Hugo Chávez will have a decisive impact on relations between Spain and Venezuela. Only 36% think that it will have consequences for bilateral relations, compared with 60% who think it will not.
- At all events, the episode has pushed Hugo Chávez’s approval rating down by one and–a–half points since last summers Barometer, to 1.4 on a scale of 0 to 10. However, in the spring of 2004, on average Spaniards gave him a pass.
- Chávez has become the worst–rated international leader in Spain, below even Fidel Castro and George W. Bush, who are traditionally Spaniards least favoured leaders.
- Sixty–five percent of Spaniards believe that the purpose of the nuclear research programme announced by the Venezuelan president might be military and not civilian.
- Spaniards distrust Chávez as much as they do Ahmadinejad, since before the CIA report released last week, 72% also believed that the purpose of the Iranian nuclear research programme was military.
CONCERN IN SOCIETY REGARDING ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
- The possible development of nuclear arms in Iran is one of the global problems which worries Spaniards the most: 40% consider it a very significant threat for Spain.
- They are also worried by international terrorism, which one out of every two Spaniards (46%) see as just as much of a threat as the terrorism of ETA.
- Spaniards are also very worried by global warming, which they consider to be the third most significant threat. This leads 75% of them to closely follow the news concerning the environment. Forty–seven percent say that Spaniards are not yet worried enough.
- Energy supply is also among the problems which generate the most concern in society, second only to global warming among environmental concerns. Thirty–seven percent believe that this is a very serious threat to Spain.
SPANIARDS KNOW ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY
- Eighty–two percentare right in saying that Spain depends on other countries for its energy supply. It is safe to say that Spaniards are starting to acquire an approximate knowledge of Spain’s interests and policies abroad.
- In a 10–point test, Spaniards got seven questions right and only the following three wrong:(1) 64% believe that Spain belongs to the United Nations Security Council.
(2) 49% believe that Spain is the leading investor in Latin America.
(3) 46% believe that Spain already devotes 0.7% of GDP to development cooperation aid.
