Great power rivalry in the Middle East

Wojciech Michnik. Expert Comment 7/2021 - 18/1/2021.

Today three external powers –the US, China and Russia– are the leading players behind great power rivalry in the Middle East.The consequences of the Arab Uprisings, the decline of the post-Cold War order and increasing global rivalry between great powers have led to this regional competition anew.

Horizon 2030: assessing the impact of socio-economic and governance issues on the future of the MENA Region

Chloe Berger. ARI 2/2021 - 13/1/2021.

It is critical for NATO to understand the nature and the dynamics of the socio-economic and governance issues that aggravate the chronic instability in the MENA region.

Scenario analysis in Europe’s southern neighbourhood: the modern crystal ball for policy makers

Natalia Martín. ARI 133/2020 - 25/11/2020.

This paper analyses the increasing adoption of scenario analysis techniques in policy circles, putting a special emphasis on the advantages of using forecasting on areas like Europe’s southern neighbourhood, where the transnational nature of geopolitical and socio-economic challenges would greatly benefit from such an approach.

A logic of its own: the external presence in the Sahel

Nina Wilén. ARI 132/2020 - 24/11/2020.

The current instability in the Sahel has attracted a heavy international security presence to the region which has taken on a logic of its own. Yet there is a need to reflect on how the international presence and local power dynamics mutually shape each other to gain a more comprehensive understanding of why current efforts to stabilise the situation have fallen short.

Global trends in the energy sector and their implication on energy security in NATO’s southern neighbourhood

Rim Berahab. ARI 103/2020 - 8/9/2020.

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. Failing to recognise its megatrends would be detrimental to the upstream development of energy strategies and to the overall energy security of NATO’s southern neighbours, particularly in the MENA region.

In the desert or at sea? Securing Europe’s southern flank

Sven Biscop. ARI 96/2020 - 16/7/2020.

Europe’s neighbourhood in the Middle East and North Africa is set to become even more instable. Are Europeans capable of securing their own southern flank?

Life beyond multilateralism? COVID-19, European strategic autonomy and Spanish foreign policy

Félix Arteaga & Luis Simón. ARI 74/2020 (English version) - 20/5/2020.

EU and Spanish foreign policy were undergoing a transition from multilateralism to strategic autonomy to adapt to an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment. However, COVID-19 raises questions about whether international politics will be characterised by a renewal of multilateralism or an aggravation of great power competition.

European defence should not be the casualty of ‘the Great Lockdown’

Elcano Royal Institute. 30/4/2020.

Europe is currently facing an unprecedented sanitary crisis, which will have gigantic economic consequences and could turn into a severe depression. A group of experts argue that defence should be included in the critical sectors as the EU renegotiates its next long-term budget that will seek to boost recovery.

The coronavirus as a yardstick of global health policy

Félix Arteaga. ARI 38/2020 - 7/4/2020.

Global health is one of the few policy areas that can be considered to have been internationalised. Although it remains under construction, it already features many of the distinctive elements of a public policy. Now it faces the challenge of COVID-19, which has been officially classified as a global pandemic.

Will European defence survive Coronavirus?

Daniel Fiott. Expert Comment 11/2020 - 27/3/2020.

How the virus will hit European defence over the long-term remains to be seen, of course. What can be said with a degree of certainly, however, is that Europe’s defence budgets may take a sizeable hit while Europe’s economies recover from the virus.