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Western Sahara: can a Trump tweet lead to unlocking the stalemate?
Haizam Amirah-Fernández & Isabelle Werenfels. ARI 43/2021 - 7/4/2021.
The outgoing US President Donald Trump recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalising relations with Israel. The new Biden Administration still has to make an unequivocal statement defining its position on the conflict. Meanwhile, several scenarios, risks and opportunities arise.
Great power rivalry in the Middle East
Wojciech Michnik. Expert Comment 7/2021 - 18/1/2021.
Today three external powers –the US, China and Russia– are the leading players behind great power rivalry in the Middle East.The consequences of the Arab Uprisings, the decline of the post-Cold War order and increasing global rivalry between great powers have led to this regional competition anew.
Horizon 2030: assessing the impact of socio-economic and governance issues on the future of the MENA Region
Chloe Berger. ARI 2/2021 - 13/1/2021.
It is critical for NATO to understand the nature and the dynamics of the socio-economic and governance issues that aggravate the chronic instability in the MENA region.
Thirty years of EU-Mediterranean Policies (1989-2019): an assessment
Bichara Khader & Haizam Amirah-Fernández. WP 8/2020 (English version) - 27/4/2020.
This working paper seeks to present a critical overview of the EU’s latest major Mediterranean policies, analysing the context, the text and the pretext of each of these policies.
Coronavirus in Arab countries: passing storm, opportunity for change or regional catastrophe?
Haizam Amirah-Fernández. ARI 37/2020 (English version) - 6/4/2020.
Coronavirus in Arab countries: passing storm, opportunity for change or regional catastrophe?
Syria strains Turkey’s ties to the West even after US withdrawal?
Nicholas Danforth. Expert Comment 27/2019 - 18/10/2019.
After seven decades, Turkey’s relationship with its nominal American and European NATO allies appears fundamentally broken. And there is still plenty of room for it to get worse. The current crisis in Syria is both a symptom and a driver of the breakdown.
From the depths to the surface: conflict drivers in the MENA region
Joost Hiltermann & Maria Rodríguez Schaap. ARI 68/2019 - 12/6/2019.
Failing to acknowledge the 2011 Arab uprisings as a breaking point announcing the need for a regime overhaul in the region, and therefore a long overdue revision of Western policy, would be a mistake with serious adverse consequences.
France’s Iran policy indicates INSTEX will not undermine sanctions
Micha’el Tanchum. Expert Comment 11/2019 - 25/4/2019.
Despite its rhetorical position as the leader of the Western opposition to the Trump Administration’s policies toward Iran, France’s Iran policy orientation has remained largely in line with US objectives.
Algerian presidential elections and the energy reform agenda
Gonzalo Escribano. ARI 128/2018 (English version) - 26/11/2018.
A new hydrocarbon law seems imminent in Algeria and progress has been made in improving the country's relations with international oil and gas companies. However, it appears that the introduction of substantive reforms will have to wait for the 2019 presidential elections.
What to do with Iran?
Félix Arteaga. ARI 63/2018 (English version) - 4/5/2018.
The relationship of Western countries with Iran is difficult because it is a country with two faces: a reformist face, more familiar and accommodating; and another conservative face, very distant and tough.